Will Trump’s Tariffs Delay Your Package Delivery?
Geopolitical instability is increasingly disrupting global supply chains. Trump’s tariffs and the sanctions against Russia, for example, are affecting overseas trade flows. In addition, climate change is putting ports and canals under strain. How are shipping companies managing to stay afloat? How much longer can fast international deliveries be sustained? And what expectations should consumers start to adjust? Three maritime transport experts weigh in on the most pressing challenges and potential solutions.
In short
- Overseas transport is under heavy pressure, partly due to geopolitical conflicts.
- Costs and delivery times are increasing, while predictability is decreasing. Fast international deliveries are no longer a given.
- Shipping lines survive through flexibility, adjusting routes as needed. Diversifying across routes, regions, and cargo types also helps reduce risk.
The Maritime Transport Sector Is Always in Crisis Mode
Christa Sys, professor of transport economics at UAntwerp (Faculty of Business and Economics), notes how maritime freight transport is under constant pressure. As holder of the BNP Paribas Fortis Chair in ‘Transport, Logistics, and Ports’, and promoter of the ‘Dennie Lockefeer’ Chair, she collaborates with researchers and industry partners to find solutions to pressing challenges.
“No less than 85% of all our goods are transported by water”, says Sys. “First as raw materials, then as semi-finished products, and finally as finished goods. Shipping is the beating heart of our economy, but it is under great pressure. Geopolitical tensions, such as trade sanctions against Russia or threats in the Strait of Hormuz, have a major impact on overseas freight transport. And climate change is adding to the disruption, from droughts in the Panama Canal to shifting wind and wave patterns affecting global supply chains.”
Higher Costs and Longer Delivery Times
The exact impact varies across different segments of the sector – whether transportation of liquid goods, dry bulk, or container shipping – each with its own routes and vulnerabilities. Still, general trends are emerging. “Everywhere, costs and delivery times are increasing, and predictability is decreasing. For example, shipping companies must either secure or steer clear of high-risk routes, which costs both time and money. Supply has already been compromised, too. Egypt, for example, relied heavily on grain imports from Ukraine, which were abruptly disrupted by the war with Russia.”
Strategic Stocks and Shifting Trade Routes
The sector survives by staying flexible, says Sys. “Shipping companies manage to navigate crises by continuously adapting to new realities. For instance, since Trump’s trade tariffs reduced Chinese exports, goods from China have been relabeled or repackaged in Vietnam and Cambodia to qualify for more favorable tariffs. And the trade routes? They shift accordingly.”
Companies also engage in strategic stockpiling: “When those new measures were announced, they quickly built up extra inventories, causing a surge in maritime transport. Then they held off on restocking, waiting to see if the tariffs would be reduced or lifted. It is a way to stay prepared, although not everything can be anticipated.”
Shipping is the beating heart of our economy, but it is under great pressure. Geopolitical tensions and climate change have a major impact on overseas freight transport.
The Sector and the Customer Must Be Flexible
Since 2015, the shipping industry has faced a relentless stream of challenges: stricter emission regulations, the COVID-19 pandemic, trade wars, natural disasters, recent conflicts such as Israel-Palestine... Sys explains how both the sector and its customers can prepare for such difficult and unpredictable circumstances. “Consumers may not notice much yet, but they will certainly need to adjust their expectations and be flexible. Fast international deliveries will no longer be a given. Local production and more mindful consumption will be key to ease the strain on supply chains.”
As for the maritime transport sector itself? “It’s permanently operating in crisis mode. Flexibility is indispensable, along with cooperation and long-term planning. Too often still, we are putting out fires on an ad hoc basis. We need to look ahead – together!”
Exposure to Risk Makes the Industry More Resilient
Jasmine Lam, maritime chair professor at the Technical University of Denmark and invited speaker at UAntwerp, focuses on risk modeling and safety strategies in maritime transport.
“Shipping is inherently volatile”, she explains. “The sector is constantly exposed to disruptions from external factors such as oil prices, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions.” According to her, the biggest challenge isn’t the immediate cost of tariffs or regulations – it’s the uncertainty. “When a tariff is announced, the most difficult phase is the negotiation period. That uncertainty complicates decisions about shipping routes, fleet size, and investments like building new vessels. Long-term planning becomes nearly impossible, even though it is needed.”
Predictions and Partnerships Reduce Risk
Uncertainty creates risk, Lam notes. “Risk assessment helps manage it by estimating the scale and duration of disruptions, and by shaping the right response. But these assessments are becoming harder, as key input factors – like tariffs, trade routes, and shipping volumes – become increasingly unpredictable. To cope with that, companies should plan for multiple scenarios: for example, they should prepare one set of measures in case tariffs rise, and another if they fall.”
Another critical strategy for risk mitigation is diversification, Lam says. “Shipping businesses with a narrow focus are more vulnerable. Don’t rely on a single route, region, or cargo type. Expanding into new markets decreases the impact of disruptions.” For smaller players, partnerships offer protection: “They can join shipping pools: alliances where companies jointly manage their fleets to spread and reduce individual risk. Collaboration is key!”
Maritime Safety Starts with Crew Wellbeing
But maritime risk and safety isn’t only about ships and cargo – it’s about people, Lam emphasizes. “Crews are on the front line when dangers arise at sea. Todays’ frequent disruptions – requiring for instance last-minute rerouting – add stress. That pressure leads to fatigue, a major cause of accidents.”
Her advice is clear: “Reduce stress by ensuring that crews get time off and undergo regular wellbeing checks. Also, provide refresher courses in emergency response and risk management. A well-rested, well-prepared crew reacts faster and more effectively!”
Resilience Forged by Crisis
Lam ends on a hopeful note. “Despite the clear downsides of disruptions and uncertainty, they have also made the maritime sector more aware and better equipped to cope. Increased exposure to risk has driven changes: staff and crews respond better and faster, participate in more training, and make greater use of digital tools. Risk mitigation and emergency response systems have improved, too. The challenges aren’t over yet, but the sector is becoming more resilient.”
Inside the Strategy of Shipping Giant MSC
How does a shipping company navigate today’s volatile landscape? Alumnus Jerri Smet, logistics and intermodal manager at MSC, offers a look behind the scenes.
After studying applied economics, office management, and logistics at the University of Antwerp and Karel de Grote University of Applied Sciences and Arts, Smet joined the Mediterranean Shipping Company ‘MSC’. What once started as a family-run business in Brussels has since grown into a global leader in container transport, with offices in 155 countries, a workforce of 200,000, and a fleet of 900 vessels.
Disrupted by Conflicts and Climate Change
At MSC, supply chain disruptions have immediate consequences. “Political decisions and conflicts shape supply and demand, triggering global ripple effects: tensions between China and the US affect Europe, too”, says Smet. “In these situations, regulations can change rapidly. We closely follow the latest guidelines and always prioritize the safety of our crews and vessels. When threats arise, we reroute – though that inevitably means added costs and delays, both for us and our clients.”
With high labor and energy costs, Europe is becoming less competitive than the US or Asia. Industries relocate, and Europe shifts more toward imports – something we notice directly in our ports
Climate change and environmental regulations are also impacting the shipping company. “We’re increasingly confronted with extreme weather conditions: drought in the Panama Canal, unpredictable water levels on the Rhine… The EU’s Green Deal therefore imposes strict sustainability targets, such as emissions reductions. That’s an important goal, but the economic impact is significant. With high labor and energy costs, Europe is becoming less competitive than the US or Asia. Industries relocate, and Europe shifts more toward imports – something we notice directly in our ports.”
Shipping Guarantees Under Strain
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, predictability in the transport sector has disappeared, says Smet. “Where shipping once followed clear, cyclical patterns, we now face continuous disruptions. At MSC, we’re solving new problems every day. This new reality is changing our services and putting long-term contract guarantees under pressure – which can be difficult to explain to customers.”
But uncertainty affects MSC’s clients, too. “Volatile energy prices, for instance, make their production capacity unpredictable. And that directly impacts how many vessels they need from us.”
Staying Agile While Planning Ahead
To handle ongoing disruptions, MSC applies a dual strategy. Structural challenges such as those posed by the Green Deal are addressed in long-term projects led by specialized teams. Sudden disruptions, however, require a strategy within 24 hours. “We don’t have a designated crisis team”, says Smet. “Everyone needs to be a bit of a crisis manager.” That makes agility and coordination essential. “Our management teams around the world are in constant contact with each other and with our headquarters in Switzerland. Regional issues are addressed at a global level.”
MSC also maximizes the assets it controls directly. “Our large fleet and our own terminals allow us to guarantee essential services. We continue to invest in these, as well as in clear communication, accessibility, and strong customer relationships. And finally, we focus on our people. By also bringing in new talent each year, we keep fresh ideas and innovation flowing!”